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New-Product Forecasting Research with Focus on Diffusion Modeling

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Gary L. Lilien


Home Page:

http://www.smeal.psu.edu/

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Most Recent NPF Publication: 2006
First NPF Publication: 1980
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NPF Publication Count: 13.00
Adjusted Count: 6.33
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NPF Publications:

Srinivasan, Raji, Gary L. Lilien, Arvind Rangaswamy. 2006. The emergence of dominant designs. Journal of Marketing 70 1-17.

Srinivasan, Raji, Gary L. Lilien, Arvind Rangaswamy. 2002. Technological opportunism and radical technology adoption: an application to e-business. Journal of Marketing 66 47-60.

Van den Bulte, Christophe, Gary L. Lilien. 2001. Medical innovation revisited: social contagion versus marketing effort. American Journal of Sociology 106 (March) 1409–1435.

Lilien, Gary L., Arvind Rangaswamy, Christophe Van den Bulte. 2000. Diffusion models: managerial applications and software. In New-Product Diffusion Models. V.Mahajan, E. Muller, & Y. Wind (Eds.), London: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Van den Bulte, Christophe, Gary L. Lilien. 1999. A two-stage model of innovation adoption with partial observability: model development and application. Pennsylvania, Working Paper. Institute for the Study of Business Markets,The Pennsylvania State University: 1-44.

Van den Bulte, Christophe, Gary L. Lilien. 1997. Bias and systematic change in the parameter estimates of macro-level diffusion models. Marketing Science 16 (4) 338–353.

Lilien, Gary L., Eunsang Yoon. 1990. The timing of competitive market entry: an exploratory study of new industrial products. Management Science 36, 5 568-585.

Kalish, Shlomo, Gary L. Lilien. 1986. Applications of innovation diffusion models in marketing. In Innovation Diffusion Models of New Product Acceptance, Vijay Mahajan and Yoram Wind, eds. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Company.

Choffray, Jean Marie, Gary L. Lilien. 1986. A decision support system for evaluating sales prospects and launch strategies for new products. Industrial Marketing Management 15.1 (1986) 75-85.

Kalish, Shlomo, Gary L. Lilien. 1986. A market entry timing model for new technologies. Management Science 32(4) 194–205.

Kalish, Shlomo, Gary L. Lilien. 1983. Optimal price subsidy policy for accelerating the diffusion of innovation. Marketing Science 2 407–420.

Lilien, Gary L., Ambar G. Rao, Shlomo Kalish. 1981. Bayesian estimation and control of detailing effort in a repeat-purchase diffusion environment. Management Science 27 (5) 493–506.

Lilien, Gary L. 1980. The implications of diffusion models for accelerating the diffusion of innovation. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 17 339-351.

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NPF Subjects:

application of diffusion model

competition, alliances, firm entry and product launch timing

decision support system

diffusion models -- perspective, tutorial, comparison and review

dominant design

estimation

price

repeat, replacement and multiple purchases

sales force

word of mouth, social contagion and social networks

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Empirical Cases:

Tetracycline | Four Illinois Cities Monthly Adopters by Physicians | Burt, Ronald S. 1986. Social Contagion and Innovation. Working Paper. Columbia University, New York.

Tetracycline | Four Illinois Cities Monthly Adopters by Physicians | Technical Report no. TR3, The Medical Innovation Network Data. Columbia University's Center for the Social Sciences.



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