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New-Product Forecasting Research with Focus on Diffusion Modeling

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Clothes Dryers | USA Annual Unit Sales | Statistical Abstract of the United States

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DID:12
Case Name:Clothes Dryers | USA Annual Unit Sales | Statistical Abstract of the United States
Product:Clothes Dryers
Region:USA
Data Source:Statistical Abstract of the United States
Measure:Unit Sales
Measure:Penetration
Interval:Annual
Period:1947-1989
___________
Case Used by:

Deleersnyder, Barbara, Marnik G. Dekimpe, Miklos Sarvary, Philip M. Parker. 2004. Weathering tight economic cycles: the sales evolution of consumer durables over the business cycle. Quantitative Marketing and Economics 4 347–383.

Golder, Peter N., Gerard J. Tellis. 1998. Beyond diffusion: an affordability model of the growth of new consumer durables. Journal of Forecasting 17 259-280.

Golder, Peter N., Gerard J. Tellis. 1997. Will it ever fly: modeling the takeoff of really new consumer durables. Marketing Science 16 (3) 256–270.

Parker, Philip M. 1992. Price elasticity dynamics over the product life cycles. Journal of Marketing Research 29(3) 358–367.

Mahajan, Vijay, Charlotte H. Mason, V. Seenu Srinivasan. 1986. An evaluation of estimation procedures for new product diffusion models. In Innovation Diffusion Models of New Product Acceptance, Vijay Mahajan and Yoram Wind, eds. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger Publishing Company.

Rao, Sanjay Kumar. 1985. An empirical comparison of sales forecasting models. Journal of Product Innovation Management 2 (December) 232-242.

Easingwood, Christopher J., Vijay Mahajan, Eitan Muller. 1983. A nonuniform influence innovation diffusion model of new product acceptance. Marketing Science 2 273–296.

Schmittlein, David C., Vijay Mahajan. 1982. Maximum likelihood estimation for an innovation diffusion model of new product acceptance. Marketing Science 1 (1) 57–78.

Bretschneider, Stuart I., Vijay Mahajan. 1980. Adaptive technological substitution models. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 18 129–139.

Bass, Frank M. 1969. A new product growth model for consumer durables. Management Science 15 215–227.

Bass, Frank M. 1967. A new product growth model for consumer durables. Working Paper.

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Chart 12_1

Chart 12_2

YearUnit SalesHousehold Penetration
194758000
194892000
1949106000
1950319000
1951492000
1952635000
19537370000.036
1954941000
19551397000
19561523000
19571294000
19581240000
19591409000
196012600000.178
19611236000
19621420000
196315990000.213
19641800000
196520980000.242
196638000000.264
196726480000.305
196828620000.346
196930220000.388
197029810000.403
197133770000.446
197239250000.51
197345260000.539
197435840000.565
197526800000.577
197631740000.586
197733390000.593
197833920000.603
197933330000.615
19802933000
198128920000.451
198226120000.598
19833111000
198434840000.615
19853701000
19864114000
19874421000
19884363000
19894404000

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