New-Product Forecasting Research Database: Diffusion Modeling

August 24, 2008 Status

The charts below provide current status of this database. Our initial focus has been on identifying the most important citations and authors. Using the set of identified publications, we are working diligently to identify and classify the empirical cases used. Although not yet complete, this work is progressing and the results are useful even in this early stage.

An author is considered active from three years before a publication to five years after.

The Citations charts above do not include Working Papers and Conference Presentations.

Vision

Our vision is to be a resource for forecasters and secondarily  for scholars that will assist in pursuit of knowledge and improved ability to forecast the sales of new products (including services). Our focus is new-product diffusion modeling and further on the empirical cases used to test and compare models as well as to serve as forecasting analogies.

The value of this resource is not simply the citation listings, but rather the indices and analyses including:

• Chronological
• Author
• Keyword
• Journal or other publication type
• Empirical cases used

Empirical Cases -- Data Matters

A particular weakness of new-product diffusion scholarly publications has been the number, quality, availability and documentation of empirical cases used to test and compare models and methods. That the empirical foundation of new-product diffusion modeling is weak is not controversial, but how weak is it?

Our goal is to systematically analyze the empirical cases used in every new-product diffusion publication reporting information such as:

• A description of each empirical case (e.g., product category, geographical region, interval, period)
• Whether or not the data source is provided in the paper and, if so. the source
• The actual data if it are available and copyright allows
• Comparison with other data source in use for the same product category
• Whether or not the author provided sufficient information about the empirical cases that the research could be repeated by others

When the analysis of empirical cases approaches completion, we expect to be able to identify trends by year, journal and author in the quality of the empirical bases of new-product diffusion research. For example,:

• Do the standards for the empirical cases differ from Journal to Journal?
• Are some authors particularly poor in providing information about their empirical cases?
• Have the quality of empirical cases improved with time?

We hope our work contributes to improvement in the empirical foundations of new-product diffusion research, and, as a result. in the usefulness of scholarly research in new-product forecasting.

Please Help with this Resource

If you notice a mistake or that we have overlooked a publication, please let us know. If you would like to help us keep this database up to date, please volunteer. We are especially in need of information about the latest journal publications, working papers and reports.

If you would like to help, please email us.

Criteria for a Publication to Be Included

Media Types Criteria

To be included in this bibliographic database most publications will be about new-product forecasting and , in particular, diffusion modeling. Given that a publication meets the subject criteria, the following types of media are included:

• Scholarly papers in journals or books
• Books and monographs
• Working papers and reports
  • Our hope is to encourage this type of publication, especially company reports concerning new-product forecasting, for example, applications.
  • a working paper or report must be available on the Web.
  • If a working paper or report becomes unavailable, its citation will be removed.
  • an author may request that Bass's Basement host a working paper or report on our site.
• Errata (from authors) correcting prior publications
• Notes and commentary on publications
• Web sites
• Dissertations
• Publication reviews
• Videos, databases, software and other media

Subjects Criteria

To be included a publication must directly concern itself with new-product forecasting. New-product forecasting includes the forecasting of:

• Frst-time sales (adoptions), replacement sales and other sales categories;
• Features, capabilities and applications;
• Cost and price;
• Advertising;
• Competition and market share;
• Purchase motivations;
• Buyer and/or user characteristics;
• Distribution channels; and
• Other product, buyer, marketing mix and market structure characteristics.

These as well as other product, buyer, marketing mix or market structure characteristics may also be used as dependent variables in forecasting models.

To be included most publications will involve mathematical/statistical modeling; for example, diffusion models of new-product sales or their application and mathematically formulated technology forecasting models. Descriptive publications (e.g., much of the innovation diffusion literature), which do not meet this criteria, will be included only if they form an essential foundation to included publications.

Most publications of mathematical and statistical theories and techniques will be included only if they treat the application of the theory to new-product forecasting models.

Review publications will be included only if the central core of the reviewed literature concerns new-product forecasting.

Opinion or perspective publications will be included if the primary subject is new-product forecasting and/or an included publications.